My reading of history tells me that the powerless are always exploited. We know that foreign armies have had a habit of marching into India. If we had not been subjugated in succession by anyone that happened to pass by: the Macedonians, the Afghans, the Timurid Mughals, and the British --- and especially the British, for few have ever invented more pucca-pucca methods for sustained and shameless plunder --- I think we would have been a much more prosperous nation. Even above and beyond the economic losses we suffered as a subjugated people, colonization subverted the normal development of our indigenous culture, and left us, as a people, lacking faith in our own abilities. This was particularly true of India's English interregnum --- and that by deliberate English design. It was much less true of our earlier Moghul period, which did in its later years --- beginning (chronologically) with Akbar's emergence from behind the skirts of his Persian regent, Bairam Khan, and (philosophically) with Akbar's abandonment of his jehad mind-set --- yield a rich and lasting and wide-ranging synthesis. 

    This is, so far, an argument for the development of a strong military deterrent. Even for an exercise of the nuclear option, of the sort we saw happen last week. 

    At the same time, the Indian tests have troubled and terrified me. The timing appears all wrong. We have yet to move to redress the main problems that face us. The chief among them being widespread illiteracy. Next, delay in, and denial of, legal process. And thirdly, great poverty coupled with an inequitable distribution of wealth. I have little faith in the good sense of the prevailing regimes in either India or Pakistan. I worry that the maintenance and development of nuclear arsenals will place crippling burdens on our economies. I worry that we are toying with untamed forces: With radioactivity that will taint our land for 25,000 years, as we discussed yesterday at the Sigdyal-Bhattarais. Alka and Prashant, Sangeeta and Satya, Samita and Raj, and Abha and I. With pollution that can surface anytime near the test grounds, which are not as far from habitation as they ought to be. With people living in nearby villages being likely unaware of the mortal danger that the tests place them in. 

    In any event I would at least have expected a man of Vajpayee's diplomatic experience to do his utmost to calm the very legitimate fears of Pakistan --- in so far as that is at all possible. This he has failed to do. This is certainly something that his RSS handlers would have frowned on, but he might have been permitted a certain level of autonomy if he had chosen to exercise it.

    I think of Pakistan as a brother nation. Of all nations, I would most like to see India have good relations with Pakistan. On this score alone I would have foregone the exercise of nuclear option, or postponed it till better times. I think that our history, our shared culture, and our geography, place us in such close proximity with the Islamic world, including Arabia, Iran, and some of the new republics of the erstwhile Soviet Union, that the nations of these regions would make us the best set of friends and allies. 

    Lastly, the RSS-BJP nexus is likely to exploit these new passions unleashed in India and Pakistan to further their narrow interests --- not at all in keeping with the larger interests of India. I fear a new level of animosity between the Hindu and the Muslim would be stoked by BJP as a force that could be relied upon to sustain that party in Delhi. 

    India's nuclear tests were a sad event. I am worried. I am fearful.
 

The US Intelligence Failure

    Prashant and I discussed this on the phone this morning. It is curious that US spy satellites failed to detect activity in Pokharan. Why did the dog not bark? President Clinton has asked the CIA to explain this lapse. 

    Let us examine three hypotheses in this connection: 

H1. US intelligence failed to predict the Pokharan tests.
H2. The US state department failed to act on intelligence inputs.
H3. The US urged India on. 

    H2 and H3 could make sense from the viewpoint that the US may see in India a nuclear bulwark against Chinese ambitions. Also Israel in the West and India in the East bracket the Islamic world, or at least that part of it that the US considers most inimical to its interests. The fact that an Indian test may provoke a Pakistani test followed by an Israeli admission of possession may be considered to be in the US interest. 

    If you come across evidence that corroborates any of these hypotheses, please do let me know. I will summarize for the group.